MLB's offense has increased dramatically in recent weeks, raising questions about a 'juiced' ball
Article excerpt
MLB offense has surged dramatically since early June 2026, with research showing baseball drag is at its lowest since 2019, adding over 10 feet to hits.
Hitting in Major League Baseball in 2026 is as hard as it's ever been.
There are starting pitchers like Jacob Misiorowski, throwing 104 mph fastballs with devastating 93 mph sliders. Just 10 years ago, the average fastball velocity across the league was 93 mph. Through his first 15 starts this year, Misiorowski's allowed a grand total of 15 earned runs.
Then there are relievers. San Diego Padres closer Mason Miller is on an otherworldly run himself, allowing just three earned runs in 32 innings. Miller's faced 123 hitters this season and struck out 63 of them. Major league average hard hit percentage allowed is around 40%. Miller's is 7%.
There's dominance, then there's what Misiorowski and Miller are doing. While they're extreme examples, pitching across the league has continued to outpace hitting. Pitch development has become a science, and the mountain of available data makes it easier than ever to find a mix of pitches that work best for each individual player.
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But over the last month or so, offense across baseball has gone up dramatically. So how's that possible, given the advantages pitchers enjoy?
Because the baseball has changed. A lot.
Eno Sarris from The Athletic researched drag on the baseball over the past few weeks, and found that it's the lowest it's been since 2019. Less drag means the ball flies farther, since there's less resistance as it goes through the air. That 2019 season was an offensive showcase, with 10 players hitting 40 or more home runs and 58 hitting 30 or more. The league as a whole hit .252/.323/.425 that year. In 2025, with a much higher drag baseball, the league hit .245/.315/.404. That's a 21-point decrease in slugging percentage, across all big league hitters.
More research from Sean Zerillo on X found that virtually all offensive analytical data has surged over this time period too. As he posted, "barrel distance increased by +10.2 ft from April 2026 to present."
It's easy to wonder if weather is a factor; warmer weather generally means the ball flies farther, after all. But that 10.2-foot increase is, Zerillo found, "the biggest in-season April to June jump of the Statcast era." Instead, the typical weather-related increase average is just 4.6 feet. And the extra six feet of distance corresponds perfectly to the reduced drag on the baseball starting in early June.
Zerillo also found that the ball traveled 10.4 feet farther even in domed stadiums or games played under a closed roof, eliminating weather as a major factor.
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There is some fluctuation year to year in the baseball itself, though the league now owns and controls production of the on-field ball. And there are humidors installed at all 30 stadiums. Does that mean Rob Manfred is specifically demanding that drag be reduced? No, of course not. Production tolerances could change, and it's still a relatively small sample size.
But it's no secret that MLB wants more offense. Rule changes in 2023 were specifically designed to achieve that goal, such as banning the shift, and it worked. At least at first. In 2022, runs per game were 4.28. In 2023, it was 4.62. By 2025, though, it had declined again to 4.45. And with pitching continually improving, maybe the league has made a concerted effort to level the playing field with a lower-drag baseball.
Yes, purists love pitching duels. But many casual fans are there to see Shohei Ohtani or Aaron Judge or Juan Soto hit home runs. And an extra six feet of distance of previous years makes that much more likely. It doesn't sound like much, but it's the difference between a harmless warning track fly ball and one landing just over the fence.
Or the difference between a double into the gap and an outfielder catching up to make the play. Whether it stays that way will be one of the most fascinating storylines the rest of the season. Especially into October, when home runs are most valuable.