America's child population is shrinking everywhere but the South
Article excerpt
Data: U.S. Census Bureau Vintage 2025 population estimates; Chart: Russell Contreras/Axios America's child population fell by 1.8 million from 2020 to 2025, with the under-18 population shrinking in every region but the South. Why it matters: Most of America…
Data: U.S. Census Bureau Vintage 2025 population estimates; Chart: Russell Contreras/Axios
America's child population fell by 1.8 million from 2020 to 2025, with the under-18 population shrinking in every region but the South.
Why it matters: Most of America is preparing for fewer students and young families, while the South faces the opposite problem: crowded classrooms, new housing pressure and rising political stakes.
The big picture: The South had 303,969 more children in 2025 than in 2020, according to new Census Bureau Vintage 2025 estimates reviewed by Axios.
The West had the largest under-18 decline: down 1,015,068, or 5.7%.
Overall, the South's total population grew 6% from 2020 to 2025, nearly double the nation's 3.1% growth.
State of play: The South's overall growth reflects strong migration patterns that are adding children, people in prime family-building years and retirees, making it the only region gaining population across all five age groups tracked by the Census Bureau.
The numbers deepen a larger post-pandemic trend: America's growth is moving outward, especially across the South.
Between the lines: This is not simply a story of children "moving" South.
County-level population change reflects births, deaths and migration.
The data does not, by itself, show how much of the under-18 growth came from families moving in versus children being born or retained in the region.
Zoom in: Southern metro counties more than accounted for the region's child population growth, offsetting losses in micro counties and rural areas, an Axios review found.
Metro counties in the South added 361,757 residents under 18, a 1.5% increase.
Meanwhile, Southern micro counties had 18,280 fewer children in 2025, down 0.7% from 2020. Southern counties outside metro and micro areas also had 39,508 fewer children, down 2.2%.
What we're watching: The South's child growth could give Black and Latino families more political and economic clout, but only if booming counties invest equitably in schools, housing, transit and health care.
The bottom line: Nationally, the population is getting older.
The U.S. median age rose to 39.4 in July 2025, up from 38.6 in April 2020.
The 65-and-older population grew 16.2% nationally from 2020 to 2025.
Meanwhile, the under-18 population fell 2.4%.