For New Graduates, Job Market Scars Could Linger for Years

Article excerpt

College graduates entering the job market during a hiring downturn may carry economic scars throughout their careers, with some research suggesting wage penalties that persist for a decade or more. The timing of graduation, whether into expansion or contraction, can shape lifetime earnings trajectories in ways economists are still working to understand. Adding to the uncertainty is artificial intelligence's unpredictable role in reshaping which jobs exist and how many entry-level positions will be available. Early cohorts show troubling patterns: those who graduated during the 2008 financial crisis experienced lasting wage suppression and delayed career progression. But A.I.'s disruption introduces variables that historical parallels cannot easily illuminate, leaving policymakers and new workers navigating fundamentally uncharted territory.