Daily on Energy: Ceasefire implications, SPR at 1983 level, and ocean monitoring politics

WHAT’S HAPPENING TODAY: Good morning and happy Monday, Daily on Energy readers! After 53 years, the New York Knicks ended their NBA championship drought over the weekend. Congrats to all the New York fans out there.

Meanwhile, there may just be an end in sight for the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

President Donald Trump over the weekend announced that Iran and the U.S. have reached a deal to end the war in the Middle East. The oil markets are responding with hopes that the conflict will be coming to end soon. We have all the details for you below.

Welcome to Daily on Energy, written by Washington Examiner energy and environment writers Callie Patteson (@CalliePatteson) and Maydeen Merino (@MaydeenMerino). Email cpatteson@washingtonexaminer dot com or mmerino@washingtonexaminer dot com for tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. If a friend sent this to you and you’d like to sign up, click here. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email, and we’ll add you to our list.

TRUMP TOUTS CEASEFIRE DEAL WITH IRAN: President Donald Trump has declared that the U.S. and Iran reached a tentative deal to end the war in the Middle East.

The president yesterday on Truth Social said that a deal with Iran has been completed. He then called for the Strait of Hormuz to open “toll free” and for the removal of the U.S. Navy’s blockade.

Trump provided some more details on the agreement during his visit in France today.

He said that the “deal’s all signed,” confirming earlier reporting that a senior U.S. official said that the president, Vice President JD Vance, and Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf signed the agreement yesterday.

The president also noted that the Strait of Hormuz would be “completely open” by Friday. French President Emmanuel Macron said that France, the UK, and 20 other countries will lead a maritime effort to reopen the waterway.

However, a senior U.S. official has said it will take some time to get traffic in the Strait of Hormuz back to normal levels, noting that mines in the waterway need to be cleared.

“I think a week from now, two weeks from now, we probably won’t return to normal in two weeks, but we will see a significant increase in [strait] traffic,” the senior U.S. official said.

There are few details about the deal, but it was reported that details on the agreement would be released in the next 24 to 48 hours. A 14-point document was released by the Iranian state media, which included a permanent halt to war, including in Lebanon. It also called for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a 60-day suspension of sanctions on Iranian oil sales, and reconstruction plans.

OIL PRICES DROP ON HOPES OF AN END TO THE CONFLICT: Oil futures traders appear to be the most confident they have been in months that the Strait of Hormuz could fully reopen in a matter of days, with international and domestic crude prices dropping to the low $80s.

Just before 3 p.m. EDT today, Brent crude was down 4.75% and selling at $83.18 a barrel. West Texas Intermediate was also down 4.81% and priced at $80.80 a barrel.

Until leaders formally sign the MOU in person, and the strait sees a significant uptick in traffic, analysts are remaining cautious over whether the ceasefire conditions will remain in place, keeping prices fairly low.

As a result, it remains unclear whether gasoline prices will fall substantially in the coming weeks. If there is no escalation in the coming days, however, some experts say the price drops could translate over to the pumps “reasonably quickly.”

Arjun Murti, a partner with energy advisory firm Veriten, told Daily on Energy that the other factor to consider is whether there is lasting damage to global refining capacity.

“The only reason that US gasoline prices might not fall as quickly would be as there continues to be refining turmoil,” Murti said. “But otherwise we would expect gasoline prices to fall on an equivalent basis as the crude reduction. That’s usually pretty quick and pretty…When we talk about a lag, we’re talking about days and weeks, not anything more than that on gasoline.”

As of today, AAA was still reporting the national average price of gasoline above $4, sitting at $4.065 a gallon. Diesel was averaging at $5.197 a gallon.

STRATEGIC PETROLEUM RESERVE HITS MULTI-DECADE LOW: Data released by the Department of Energy this afternoon reveals that the domestic stockpiles of crude oil have hit their lowest level since the 1980s, as markets still feel the effects of the months-long closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

For the week ending on June 12, the SPR was recorded having around 340.3 million barrels of crude oil. The last time inventories were this low was in late summer of 1983, when the SPR was initially being filled.

The last historic low recorded was in July 2023 under former President Joe Biden, who approved the release of 180 million barrels, sending stockpiles to a low of 346.7 million barrels.

If you forgot: The SPR was first created in 1975 in the wake of the Arab oil embargo, with the intention of protecting the markets and U.S. consumers from severe supply shocks and price spikes. It is one of the largest emergency crude inventories in the world, with a total capacity of around 714 million barrels across four main facilities.

The U.S. first announced it would be drawing from its oil stockpiles in March, as part of a coordinated release with the International Energy Agency. The U.S. alone said it planned to release 172 million barrels from the SPR by July.

Republicans have broadly blamed the Biden administration for the record low levels being seen now, but it’s a bit more complex than that. Since 2015, for example, Congress authorized the sale of around 358.6 million barrels of crude between fiscal 2017 and fiscal 2031 to offset budget deficits.

Curious about how we got here? Callie took a deeper dive into why we’ve been witnessing the supplies dwindle. Check it out here.

ENERGY DEPARTMENT FINALIZES $1.6B LOAN FOR NATURAL GAS INFRASTRUCTURE: The Department of Energy’s lending arm, the Office of Energy Dominance Financing, has finalized a $1.6 billion loan to upgrade and modernize hundreds of miles’ worth of natural gas infrastructure.

The details: EDF announced this morning that it closed on the loan to DTE Gas Company, saying it would deliver over $700 million in cost savings for Michigan customers. The funds will specifically be used to modernize and strengthen roughly 800 miles of distribution mains and service lines. This will also include the rebuilding of an existing compressor station that can store natural gas during low demand periods.

This loan is quite similar to a conditional commitment made under the Biden administration, which would have provided up to $1.64 billion to DTE Gas Company and up to $7.17 billion to DTE Electric Company. That second loan guarantee was intended to build out generation and battery storage.

REPUBLICANS AND DEMOCRATS ASK TRUMP TO REVERSE DISMANTLING OF OCEAN MONITORING SYSTEM: A group of bipartisan lawmakers is calling on the Trump administration to walk back its plans to dismantle a massive ocean monitoring system.

Quick reminder: Earlier this month, the National Science Foundation confirmed it was moving to dismantle large portions of the Ocean Observatories Initiative. This is a $368 million monitoring network made up of hundreds of deep-sea sensors and research infrastructure deployed across several regions. It has been used for more than a decade to track greenhouse gases, ocean temperatures, ocean circulation, marine ecosystems, coastal flooding and much more.

The NSF is specifically moving to remove most of the network’s instruments off the coasts of Oregon, Washington, Alaska, North Carolina, and Greenland by 2027.

The pushback: The decision is facing backlash from lawmakers across the aisle, as scientists have said it was made without warning or scientific review, according to the Associated Press. A group of Democratic senators, along with Republican Sen. Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, sent a letter to the administration asking the NSF to reverse the dismantling and conduct a thorough review before taking any further action.

“Eliminating most of this complex ocean monitoring system threatens the safety of our coastal communities while undermining our nation’s ability to monitor coastal environments, marine currents, and extreme weather events,” the letter read.

Murkowski reportedly plans to introduce legislation with Oregon Democratic Sen. Jeff Merkley to bar the NSF from using any federal funds to remove instruments until a review is completed.

RESIDENTIAL SOLAR INSTALLATIONS TO STALL: The residential solar industry is feeling the strain from the sunsetting of clean energy tax credits under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, as a new report has found installations are expected to drop to the lowest levels in five years.

A new BloombergNEF report released today found that roughly 4.1 gigawatts of residential solar will be installed in 2026, down around 15% from last year. This trend is only expected to continue, as the report projected that the market won’t return to the record levels of 2023 anytime in the next 10 years.

Some solar companies are feeling even greater pressure, with Sunrun anticipating a 25% drop in residential installations compared to 2025.

Simultaneously, the report found that residential battery installations are also dropping. In 2026, only 1.4 gigawatts of home battery storage is expected to be installed, a 26% drop from last year.

WARREN REQUESTS INFO ON DATA CENTER DEALS: Democrat Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts has requested information from four large infrastructure investors on their data center deals, Axios reports.

Warren sent letters to BlackRock, Blackstone Group, Brookfield Infrastructure Partners, and KKR on Friday asking for more information regarding the possible overlaps between ownership of data centers and utilities.

The letters request information on investments in data center companies, including changes to financial structure and operations.

Warren asks the investors to provide information on how they plan to mitigate regulation risks that accompany owning data centers. She also asks for the companies to explain how they plan to ensure these data centers will not increase energy costs for Americans.

FLOODING RISK IN TEXAS AND LOUISIANA: Both Louisiana and Texas are expected to get hit with intense rainfall this week, raising risks for flooding, Bloomberg reports.

For the next three days, there is a moderate level 3 risk of heavy rainfall across coastal Texas, the Weather Prediction Center said. Flooding warnings and watches stretch from central and eastern Texas to Mississippi, with up to seven inches of rain forecast.

The patch of thunderstorms along the coast could also bring the Atlantic hurricane season’s first storm. The National Hurricane Center said the weather system has a 30% chance of becoming a tropical storm.

A LOOK AHEAD:

June 16 The Pew Charitable Trusts is hosting an event in Washington, D.C., titled, “At the Grid Edge: Innovative Energy Systems to Meet Today’s Demand.”

June 17 The Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee is holding a hearing to consider reauthorizing the National Parks and Public Land Legacy Restoration Fund.

June 17 The Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee is holding a hearing to examine the state of U.S. territories.

June 17 The U.S. Chamber of Commerce is holding its 2026 Environmental Innovation Summit.

June 18 The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission is holding its monthly open meeting.

June 18 The American Enterprise Institute is holding an event in Washington, D.C., titled, “How Will the US Unleash Commercial Nuclear Power?”

June 18 The Hudson Institute is hosting an event titled, “Deterring Russia and China: Securing America’s Nuclear Future.”

June 19 is Juneteenth.

June 21 is Father’s Day.

June 21 is the Summer Solstice!

RUNDOWN

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