EXCLUSIVE: Senate Dems’ Top Strategist Outlines His Path to the Majority

Photo Illustration by Bill Kuchman/The Bulwark | Photos: Getty, Shutterstock

THERE HAS BEEN A LOT OF DRAMA in the Senate landscape over the past few weeks: Graham Platner’s downfall in Maine; the increasingly hostile primary battle between Haley Stevens and Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan; and the sudden death of Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham, which has left Democrats hoping that a bruising GOP primary in South Carolina could make the seat unexpectedly competitive in November.

So, with less than four months to go until November 3, I wanted to check in with one of the most seasoned and well-respected Democratic Senate campaign operatives: JB Poersch. Poersch served as the executive director of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee in 2006 and 2008, and now runs Senate Majority PAC, the party’s most influential super PAC, which is aligned with Minority Leader Chuck Schumer. As you’ll see in our conversation, Poersch is very defensive of the job Schumer has done recruiting this cycle (and he has no desire to take ownership of Schumer-recruit Janet Mills’s failed bid in Maine). He genuinely believes South Carolina could be worth paying attention to. And he’s quietly watching a pair of red-state independent candidates. Our conversation below has been edited for length and clarity.

Lauren Egan: At this phase in the midterm cycle, what is the Democratic path to winning the Senate?

JB Poersch: The cycle started off with most of the focus on Georgia, North Carolina, Maine, and Michigan. Those were the primary four. The Republicans make a lot of noise about New Hampshire, but they never tell you that the last time [former Sen. John] Sununu ran for Senate twenty years ago, he got drubbed.1

What’s happened since then is that [the GOP’s] money, their reservations have shifted primarily to four more states. They’re states that Trump won by 13 points or more, but that may be the key to holding the majority for the Democrats: Alaska, Iowa, Ohio, and Texas. They’re all toss-ups. I know that from our data, and I think public data would say the same thing. The other thing they have in common is that there are uniquely, really good [Democratic] candidates in the races in those four states.

Egan: Is there a race that’s not on folks’ radar that could end up being competitive?

Poersch: There’s another tier of races that are in strong Republican territory. There’s Florida with Alex Vindman, who’s already raised $16 million that we know of in reports. In Mississippi, Democrats are excited about Scott Colom. The independent bids are notable in Nebraska and in Montana, and we’re watching those independent candidates closely. They’re both running really, really good campaigns.

But the other one that’s coming up today is obviously

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