Is Ukraine Winning the War?
Article excerpt
Ukraine’s strikes against Russia’s industrial base have been spectacularly successful. But it is still far too early to predict how the war will end, writes Aaron MacLean.
Conventional wisdom regarding the war in Ukraine tends to swing like a pendulum, generally in tandem with the fortunes of the war. That means today’s optimism regarding Ukraine’s improved strategic prospects, while in many ways justified, is missing some balance.
First, the good news for Kyiv. After a bitterly cold winter made worse by Russian strikes against its power grid, Ukraine is now imposing pain in return through strikes not only on the battlefield but deep into occupied territories like Crimea and, often spectacularly, in Russia itself. As ably described by my CBS News colleague Aidan Stretch, these medium- and long-range strike campaigns have created military difficulties for Russia, and an energy and political crisis in Crimea, where authorities recently imposed a state of emergency.
An energy crisis also looms in the Russian heartland, with dangerous political implications for Russian president Vladimir Putin. Daring strikes on energy targets as far afield as St. Petersburg, more than 500 miles from the border, have shown Russians that much more of their country is exposed to the risks of war than was the case in 2022. Consequences are being felt at the gas pump, where prices are high and severe shortages are appearing, a result of the Ukrainian targeting of Russia’s refineries.
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