New satellite system could detect nukes in space

The United States officially conducted 1,054 nuclear tests between 1945 and 1992, but only one of them is known to have satellites among its casualties. In 1962, the U.S. detonated the 1.4-megaton Starfish Prime thermonuclear warhead 250 miles above the planet. The resultant electromagnetic pulse (EMP) blast was vastly wider than expected, and even damaged an estimated 300 streetlights in Hawaii around 900 miles away. In space, Starfish Prime’s lingering artificial radiation belt also unintentionally destroyed many of the earliest satellites launched by the U.S., the United Kingdom, and the Soviet Union.

“When you have a nuclear detonation in outer space, basically the whole body of the bomb becomes ionized, and nearly every single electron in the weapon’s mass becomes free,” Areg Danagoulian, a nuclear scientist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), said in a statement.

Once free, these ions merge into the Van Allen radiation belt, where the electrons bombard everything in their path. This further ionizes particles while producing damaging radiation. To put it simply, detonating nuclear weapons in space can be as disastrous as detonating them on Earth.

In 1967, the U.S., U.K., and Soviet Union signed the Outer Space Treaty designating the cosmos as the “province of all mankind” while also banning the usage or testing of nuclear weapons beyond the planet’s atmosphere. Another 115 other nations including China have since entered into the agreement, which by all accounts kept space neutral and nuke-free for nearly 55 years, until the satellite called Cosmos2553.

In 2022, Russia launched their alleged surveillance and sensor satellite, but watchdogs and critics immediately raised suspicions about its true purpose. Cosmos2553 has an unusual orbit, routinely passing through some of the most radioactive regions above Earth.

“It goes through the most hostile environment possible around the planet,” said Danagoulian. “Why would you put a satellite in that orbit? Well, that location is likely the best point for trapping electrons if you were to detonate a thermonuclear weapon.”

Cosmos2553’s true purpose remains unclear, but the worst case scenario envisioned by Danagoulian would have devastating consequences. A nuclear anti-satellite weapon in its position hypothetically has the capability to destroy many international communication and internet satellites, GPS, and reconnaissance equipment.

To make matters worse, it’s still extremely difficult to confirm whether or not a satellite houses nuclear weapons. After reviewing the available unclassified research, Danagoulian realized there still weren’t even any proposed methods to assess suspicious orbiters. But that doesn’t mean the problem is unsolvable.

According to Danagoulian, there is a way forward for international monitoring against nuclear satellites. In a feasibility study published today in Nature, he describes a new satellite-based sensor system that could be launched near a suspected orbiter, then monitor it for signs of nuclear activity. The key lies in a type of atomic reaction called spallation that involves energized protons in radioactive conditions.

“When an energetic proton slams into elements with a high atomic number, like uranium and plutonium, each proton may knock out something like 40 neutrons. That’s a ridiculously large number,” said Danagoulian. “We’re talking about millions of protons per second per square centimeter, with many of them generating 40 neutrons.”

Basically, there are a lot of smoking guns, if you have the right equipment to find them. In his system, two neutron sensing panels called scintillators are installed between synthetic crystal diamond devices. The combined array allows it to differentiate between nuclear radioactive neutrons versus naturally occurring protons and electrons. From there, the device can estimate the neutrons’ direction of origin to determine if they’re natural atmospheric particles or those from a nuclear-bearing satellite.

Danagoulian calculated that his sensor system could flag an orbiting nuke with 99 percent accuracy if it spent a week orbiting within about 2.5 miles of the target. However, multiple sensor satellites within around 0.6 miles of the suspected weapon could get an answer after only a few hours.

“You can fake intelligence, but you can’t fake physics,” he added.

The MIT researcher stressed his system is currently purely hypothetical, and requires more development and real-world testing. At the same time, he hopes his feasibility study highlights that such solutions are not only realistic, but worth exploring.

“The goal right now is to get national labs to use this work for their own research, and to get policymakers to seriously consider this technology as a potential part of national technical means,” said Danagoulian.

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