Trump’s MAGA brand is fading, and that makes it dangerous

Trump stores are closing across the country. In Philadelphia and Crystal Lake, Illinois, shops that sell MAGA merchandise are shutting down due to a lack of interest. The Trump Truth Store + Hangout in Crystal Lake has only been open for several months. But in an interview with the Chicago Tribune, the owner explained her difficult decision to temporarily close the location, reasoning that President Trump’s war against Iran was the immediate cause of the collapse in business.

“It was dead as a door nail the minute that happened,” she said, while noting her belief that wearing Trump regalia, which includes T-shirts and hats, could attract negative attention for his MAGA followers.

The closure of these stores points to an undeniable fact: Donald Trump is deeply unpopular. His precipitous decline in the polls, which show key parts of his base, including white working-class voters, fragmenting, is much deeper than a single issue such as the economy or Iran. A growing number of Americans are rejecting what Trump and MAGA represent, a development that is a much greater political problem than winning the day or week of the election cycle.

To understand why, consider that MAGA was one of the most successful brands in American history.

A successful brand creates a deep emotional connection between the consumer and the product. To that point, modern branding is less about the function of the product, and more about identity and the self. This is especially true in the era of social media, hyper-individualization, personal branding and micro celebrity.

As a brand, MAGA achieved rare semiotic unity. The movement’s leader, language and visuals were virtually inseparable from the emotions it inspired.

As a brand, MAGA achieved rare semiotic unity. The movement’s leader, language and visuals were virtually inseparable from the emotions it inspired. The brand’s power was enhanced by its ability to function as a type of empty vessel that different individuals and groups could fill with their own meaning.

A decade later, that brand is in crisis. And once tarnished, a brand rarely fully recovers.

A new poll from the Public Religion Research Institute shows how toxic Trump and MAGA have become. More than twice as many Americans (68% vs. 29%) believe that the country is “in real danger of losing important democratic rights and freedoms” than those who think they will remain protected. Democrats (86%) and independents (70%) agree; Republicans are divided (51% vs. 47%).

The poll also found that almost 60% of Americans believe that “President Trump is a dangerous dictator whose power should be limited before he destroys American democracy.” By comparison, 38% of Americans see him as “a strong leader who should be given the power he needs to restore America’s greatness.” This divide is starkly partisan: a majority of Republicans view Trump as a “strong leader;” Democrats and independents view him as an existential threat to American democracy.

Significantly, as the nation prepares to celebrate its 250th anniversary, slightly more than half of respondents consider themselves to be “proud Americans” or proud of the country’s history. Less than a fifth take pride in the way democracy is working today.

The growing challenge to the MAGA brand and Trump’s authoritarian overreach is also reflected by how the courts are pushing back against the administration’s assault on democracy and the rule of law, with the exception of the Supreme Court, which has effectively empowered Trump as America’s first king. Civil society is awakening. No Kings protests are growing. In Minneapolis and other cities, Americans are organizing mutual aid for those groups that are being targeted by the administration. And Democratic candidates continue winning elections.

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A healthy brand needs new supporters. Trump is not getting them. Younger voters find MAGA stale. His rallies now draw thousands instead of tens of thousands. The Trump-MAGA brand crisis reflects a larger dynamic: Across a range of issues, Republican and right-wing policies are unpopular. Because they cannot win majority support, today’s Republicans and conservatives have increasingly chosen to restrict democracy instead of changing their policies and messaging to win over the American people.

This involves attacks on the mechanisms of American democracy through gerrymandering, as well as voter nullification and voter suppression by limiting mail-in ballots and birthright citizenship, enacting voter ID laws, and making claims that Democratic votes, especially from Black and brown people, are inherently fraudulent.

To complement these attacks on the machinery of democracy, the GOP is twisting and distorting the very concept of democracy itself. This is an insidious, sophisticated strategy that undermines the basic legitimacy of democratic processes and outcomes.

Under this framework, democracy is only “free and fair” if MAGA Republicans win. Democracy is made into a zero-sum game of winners and losers where compromise and consensus building are all but impossible. This distortion of democracy leads to more extremism as seen on Jan. 6 and beyond, where one group of Americans has convinced themselves that they have a unique claim on power that must be defended by any means, up to and including violence.

Trumpism and MAGA have always been a niche product with limited crossover appeal. Its power came from possessing a loud base that is outsized in its influence because of the right’s decades of strategy, planning, superior resources and a vast media propaganda machine.

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The rise of Trump and his MAGA movement was not unique. It reflected a global moment when authoritarian populists pushed out incumbents. Contrary to being the world’s greatest democracy, America’s institutions, civil society and culture proved to be very vulnerable to these authoritarian forces.

Not to be forgotten or overlooked, Trump lost the popular vote in 2016 to Hillary Clinton by three million. He beat Kamala Harris eight years later by two million. Neither outcome represented a landslide or national mandate for his MAGA brand.

Among his MAGA followers, Trump consistently has a 90% approval rating, or higher, depending on the poll and issue. Although his base is exhibiting growing concerns because of the Iran war and the poor economy, they remain devoted to the MAGA brand. As recent primary elections in Texas and Georgia have shown, Trump also remains the kingmaker for the Republican Party. Yet his approved candidates will likely struggle in a general election.

Brands in crisis need to adapt. MAGA cannot. Admitting defeat would shatter the certainty and appeal that defines both the brand and Trump himself.

Since MAGA is now a type of psychological identity and community, it is very difficult for its true believers to leave or admit that they made a mistake by supporting it.

Trump will not quit. He views polls and the public mood as fake unless they show him winning.

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In politics, a damaged brand is often an increasingly desperate and reckless one. This makes Trump and MAGA more dangerous, not less. In an attempt to recapture the earlier energy of the MAGA movement, when Trump’s transgressive nature, norm-breaking, and personal insults were still shocking, and grossly titillating for his MAGA followers and others attracted to his banner, he is testing new slogans on his Truth Social platform. Leading contenders are “dumbocrats” and/or “dumocrats” and “NICE” (National Immigration and Customs Enforcement) instead of “ICE” (Immigration and Customs Enforcement). Trump is now in the stage of his performance art where he is like a comedian doing crowd work at a small club to test out new material.

Several years ago, I was thinking about a post-Trump and post-MAGA future. I wondered if his followers would hide their regalia in the attic or in a box in the back of the closet, or if they would instead continue to wear it proudly while marching in parades and attending rallies honoring the Age of Trump and the Great Restoration.

I fear there are many years left in this age, and that it will not quickly fade into political obsolescence, becoming a curiosity or historical footnote. Repairing the wreckage this era has caused to American democracy and society will take many years.

But I am now increasingly certain that most supporters of this version of Trumpism and MAGA will pretend they were not associated with it. Toxic brands have few defenders. They are disposable by their very nature, and tend to be replaced by a competitor.

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