Forget Maduro, Diosdado Cabello is the one holding Venezuela hostage

As Venezuela’s interim leader charts a course after former dictator Nicolas Maduro’s removal, Delcy Rodriguez faces a decisive test. Turning over Diosdado Cabello to U.S. authorities would confirm that her government’s cooperation with American security agencies and her welcome of an Israeli rescue team in Caracas represent a substantive shift, not mere rhetoric. Without a doubt, Cabello remains the dominant internal obstacle to that shift and to any stable continuity under her leadership.

Justice Department indictments in the Southern District of New York remain, charging Cabello with narco-terrorism conspiracy, cocaine importation, and firearms violations as the key leader in the Cartel of the Suns. The State Department has offered a reward of up to $25 million for information leading to his arrest or conviction.

Treasury Department sanctions documents have detailed how Cabello and his network seized drug shipments from smaller traffickers, laundered proceeds through front companies, and coordinated large-scale cocaine movements with the FARC. These activities have helped sustain the repression and economic mismanagement that drove nearly 7.9 million Venezuelans into exile. Venezuela’s oil output remains mired near 1.1 million barrels per day, far below historical capacity, because the kleptocratic structures that Cabello personifies deter investment and competent management.

Vladimir Padrino Lopez, once the regime’s military linchpin, has already been removed from the defense ministry. His influence has eroded further amid health concerns, and even his own family is opposed to his true political ambitions. To date, he offers no serious counterweight to Cabello’s network inside the country nor a threat to Rodriguez’s leadership. In fact, Cabello holds the real power to derail any pro-Western shift. He commands the security apparatus, the armed paramilitary thugs, and the smuggling empires that could easily torpedo Rodriguez’s outreach to Washington, Jerusalem, and the rest of the Western capitals.

Retaining Cabello does not protect institutional continuity. It invites endless paralysis. His methods and associates strengthen the case, pressed by opposition figures including Maria Corina Machado, for a clean break with the past, irrespective of any particular leader’s prospects. Collaboration with the Drug Enforcement Administration and CIA on Maduro’s case already demonstrates Rodriguez’s access to leverage. Applying it to Cabello would neutralize the single figure whose removal would most improve Venezuela’s international standing and domestic governability.

In my opinion, two concrete steps would translate this into results. First, Rodriguez should strategically arrange Cabello’s transfer to U.S. custody in exchange for targeted sanctions relief on energy infrastructure not directly tied to narcotics networks. The United States could then authorize Israeli technical teams to install transparent monitoring systems and forensic accounting protocols across PDVSA operations. This way, incremental production gains above current levels would flow partly into an independently audited escrow fund for skilled migrant return packages, housing, job placement, and startup capital, thereby creating immediate stakes in recovery for the 7.9 million displaced Venezuelans abroad and those affected by the recent earthquake.

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Second, Washington and Caracas should stand up a trilateral U.S.-Venezuela-Israel fusion center dedicated to mapping and dismantling residual Cartel of the Suns cells and Iranian proxy networks operating in the hemisphere. There is no doubt that full Venezuelan cooperation with the Cabello-era archives would accelerate pathways to credible multilateral financing and debt restructuring. In parallel, Israeli agricultural and water-management specialists could establish pilot “sovereignty zones” using proven arid-zone technologies to raise domestic food output, directly attacking a core push factor behind mass emigration while generating rural employment.

Cabello’s criminal record and operational control make him the decisive liability. Removing him is the prerequisite for any credible claim that Venezuela under Rodríguez can deliver progress rather than recycled failure.

Jose Lev Alvarez is an American, Israeli scholar specializing in international security policy. A multilingual veteran of the IDF special forces and the U.S. Army, he holds three master’s degrees and is completing a Ph.D. in Intelligence and Global Security in the Washington, D.C., area.