America’s Gulf ally goes rogue: Iran’s silent partner co-managing Hormuz

Oman no longer balances between the West and Iran. Muscat now openly coordinates with Tehran over the Strait of Hormuz.

On July 11, Muscat proposed dividing Hormuz traffic into two separately controlled routes, one along Iran’s coast, one nearer Oman’s shore, each administered by the respective government. Officials described the plan as toll-free. Yet, the same framework emerged from Muscat’s Joint Hormuz Committee with Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi, where negotiators discussed operations, administration, navigation services, and passage costs. Oman’s foreign minister had already labeled the U.S.-Israel campaign against Iran “immoral and illegal.” The pattern now exposes neutrality as an obsolete diplomatic posturing.

For decades, Oman cultivated an image of “Islamic neutrality.” Under Sultan Qaboos and his successor, Haitham bin Tariq, Muscat hosted every quiet round of U.S.-Iran diplomacy, relayed diplomatic cables, and advanced energy projects such as joint development of Hengam and a proposed undersea gas pipeline.

Muscat sat astride the strait while avoiding open confrontation. That posture produced access. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu visited Muscat in 2018, the first such trip in more than 20 years. Sultan Haitham received former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo in February 2020. Oman positioned itself as the indispensable Gulf backchannel.

Nonetheless, the Iranian aggression triggered the ongoing operation, making the shift unmistakable. Within six weeks, the U.S.-Iran talks moved from Muscat to Islamabad’s Serena Hotel, where 20 hours of bargaining yielded a ceasefire that Pakistan has been endlessly extending.

Pakistan’s 959-kilometer border with Iran, nuclear arsenal, and Gwadar port, just 600 kilometers, or about 373 miles, from the Strait of Hormuz, gave Islamabad advantages Muscat could never match. Iranian missiles also struck Omani ports at Duqm and Salalah. Oman’s armed forces, numbering roughly 42,000 to 47,000 personnel and supported by defense spending exceeding 5% of gross domestic product despite a population of just 5 million, had long focused on securing the Musandam Peninsula. That same geography now underpins Muscat’s joint administration of the strait with Tehran.

Dividing Hormuz would turn maritime management into coercive power over U.S. allies and Fifth Fleet operations in Bahrain. Oman’s shift from hosting Netanyahu to sharing the strait with Iran, after criminalizing Israeli ties, shows how far American deterrence has weakened. Now, Tehran could easily use the arrangement to mask sanctions evasion and proxy financing at sea.

Congress should enact the Hormuz Transit Accountability Act. The proposed legislation requires vessels with U.S. ownership, insurance, or financing to log Hormuz passages in a Treasury blockchain registry cross-checked against AIS and satellite data. Any Omani or Iranian routing directive or payment triggers automatic secondary sanctions on operators and reinsurers, as well as a five-year exclusion from U.S. ports and maritime programs. This turns American dominance over shipping finance into real-time economic deterrence, raising costs for obstruction before any kinetic threshold, while complementing military measures.

Under existing National Defense Authorization Act authorities, the Trump administration should launch a Hormuz Sentinel Program. Extra-large unmanned underwater vehicles and high-altitude platforms, integrated with Emirati and Saudi networks, would provide persistent surveillance of the strait. Congress should preauthorize jamming, mine neutralization, and interdiction in response to confirmed efforts to impose segmented control or passage fees.

IRAN RETURNS TO NO-LIMITS GULF STATE TARGET LIST AFTER DECLARING STRAIT OF HORMUZ CLOSED

This program would protect U.S. logistics, Gulf forces, and regional allies without a large new manned footprint that could suggest Washington was reversing course. Above all, this initiative would show regional partners that the United States will secure the Strait of Hormuz rather than cede it, denying Iran and Oman the power to turn geography into a veto over energy security and alliance cohesion.

Hormuz must remain a global passageway, not an Iranian-Omani veto over energy security.

Jose Lev Alvarez is an American, Israeli scholar specializing in international security policy. A multilingual veteran of the IDF special forces and the U.S. Army, he holds three master’s degrees and is completing a Ph.D. in Intelligence and Global Security in the Washington, D.C., area.