India's surprise baby bust

Article excerpt

India's fertility rate has plummeted faster than demographers predicted, falling below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman in most states, a demographic shock that arrived a decade ahead of forecasts. The decline, driven by rising female education, urban migration, and delayed marriages, contradicts the assumption that high fertility would persist in poorer countries for generations. This sudden shift poses economic risks: fewer working-age people will support an aging population, tax bases will shrink, and countries betting on demographic dividends may find those bets hollow. The trajectory offers a cautionary tale for nations assuming gradual population transitions.