When AI threatens future careers: a dual-appraisal model of university students’ career goal adjustment intentions

IntroductionArtificial intelligence (AI) is reshaping future work and increasing university students’ concerns about career uncertainty and employability. Existing research offers limited insight into why students respond differently to the same AI-related career uncertainty. Drawing on cognitive appraisal theory, this study examines how the AI job replacement threat influences students’ career goal adjustment intentions through challenge and hindrance appraisals, as well as whether proactive personality shapes these appraisal processes.MethodsTwo studies were conducted. Study 1 used a scenario-based experiment with 205 university students to manipulate high versus low AI job replacement threat. Independent-samples t-tests and partial least squares structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM) were used for data analysis. Study 2 used survey data from 458 career-entry students to test the proposed moderated mediation model using PLS-SEM.ResultsArtificial intelligence job replacement threat increased both challenge and hindrance appraisals. Challenge appraisal mediated the relationship between AI job replacement threat and career goal reengagement intention, whereas hindrance appraisal mediated the relationship between AI job replacement threat and career goal disengagement intention. Proactive personality strengthened the relationship between the AI job replacement threat and challenge appraisal, as well as the indirect effect on career goal reengagement intention. However, proactive personality did not significantly weaken the hindrance appraisal pathway.DiscussionThe findings suggest that AI job replacement threat functions as a dual-meaning source of career uncertainty in the context of AI-driven labor market transformation. While proactive personality facilitates opportunity-oriented career adaptation, it does not eliminate perceptions of structural career threat, highlighting the limits of individual agency in navigating future work uncertainty.