Will China and the United States Pursue Strategic Stability?

Article excerpt

Michael Swaine's 2024 analysis warned that U.S.-China tensions could spiral into armed conflict, identifying specific flashpoints and escalation risks. Two years later, War on the Rocks revisits his framework following recent talks between President Trump and President Xi. The piece examines whether the two powers might actually pursue strategic stability, a framework for managing competition without military confrontation, or whether structural tensions in their relationship make conflict increasingly likely despite diplomatic engagement.