House Democrats' Jeffries-skeptic caucus isn't done growing

Democratic primaries this summer could elevate another crop of incoming House members who have refused to commit to voting for Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) as speaker.

Why it matters: This growing bloc of Jeffries skeptics could create real headaches for the Democratic leader as he attempts to form a united front to take on the Trump administration.

Jeffries' colleagues, left and center, widely expect him to become speaker if Democrats win the majority, noting that former Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) faced similar rancor in 2018 and still secured the gavel.

There is also no clear alternative to Jeffries, with House Democrats and candidates telling Axios there have been no indications anyone is preparing to challenge him.

But even if this likely cohort of rebellious first-years does acquiesce to Jeffries on Jan. 3, they are not planning to make his tenure as speaker an easy one.

State of play: Primaries in the spring and early summer have elevated several high-profile Democratic Socialists of America members who won't commit to voting for Jeffries, including Darializa Avila-Chevalier and Claire Valdez in New York and Adam Hamawy in New Jersey.

Melat Kiros, who unseated Rep. Diana DeGette (D-Colo.) last week, told Axios she "will not vote for any Democrat for a leadership position if they take corporate PAC money," which would apply to Jeffries.

Pennsylvania state Rep. Chris Rabb, the Democratic nominee in a safely blue U.S. House seat in Philadelphia, told Axios in an interview that Jeffries "supported a lot of the folks who my endorsees beat, and who made a lot of rhetoric that I found problematic."

What's next: The Michigan and Missouri primaries on Aug. 4 will determine whether the ranks of Jeffries skeptics grow even further.

Former Rep. Cori Bush (D-Mo.), who is running for her old seat and previously voted for Jeffries on 19 speaker ballots in 2023, declined to commit to doing so in 2027 in an interview with Axios last week.

William Lawrence, a progressive candidate in Michigan's 7th District, said in an interview he looks forward to "voting for a Democratic speaker," but "will have to see how it all shakes out. I hope to have an alternative to Jeffries to vote for."

Zoom in: Several other candidates with August or September primaries told Axios last fall they either won't commit to Jeffries or are outright opposed to him: Donavan McKinney of Michigan, Heath Howard of New Hampshire and Patrick Roath of Massachusetts.

Angela Gonzales-Torres and Mai Vang, both of whom are facing runoffs in California with Democratic incumbents in November, are also in the Jeffries-skeptic column.

The other side: Elijah Manley, running in Florida's 20th District, has changed his tune after previously opposing Jeffries. He told us last week the Democratic leader "will work with progressives to be the type of wartime leader that we need."

Luke Bronin, who is primarying Rep. John Larson (D-Conn.), has also become supportive since the fall, telling Axios: "We should not start our majority by fighting over who should be speaker."

What they're saying: Jeffries has expressed stern confidence that these progressives ultimately won't stand between him and the speakership.

"I think I've stood as the Democratic nominee for speaker now a total of 20 times because of dysfunction on the other side of the aisle, and I haven't lost a single Democratic vote yet," he told reporters last week.

New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani, a DSA member closely aligned with many of the incoming skeptics, has said he supports Jeffries for speaker.

Yes, but: Even if Jeffries wins over his detractors and secures the gavel, he is all but certain to face constant headaches from his left flank in the battles ahead.

"People are tired of the weakness ... from Democratic party leadership who have lost to [Trump] not once but twice," Lawrence said.

If Jeffries wins, Rabb said, "We have to have a pivot point on the question: What are the expectations you have of a Democratic speaker of the House, and how does that correlate to how you ran?"

The bottom line: Even as House Democrats largely dismiss the possibility of anyone in the caucus making a run at Jeffries, some are also cautioning that, in this wild political climate, nothing can be ruled out.

"It's an unusual political year," one House Democrat told Axios. "Anything could happen."

Editor's note: This story has been updated with a statement from Luke Bronin expressing support for Jeffries as speaker.