Noles News: ESPN projects FSU to finish 12th in ACC
Article excerpt
ESPN's SP+ projection model forecasts Florida State to win just four games in ACC conference play, finishing 12th in the league standings. The Seminoles, once a perennial power in college football, face a steep rebuilding challenge after years of declining performance. The projection underscores FSU's struggles as the program seeks to stabilize under current leadership. The model suggests the team will struggle to find consistent wins against ACC competition in the coming season.
Florida State head coach Mike Norvell leads practice Thursday, April 9, 2026. | Alicia Devine/Tallahassee Democrat / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
Football
ESPN’s Bill Connelly released his 2026 ACC preview, with SP+ projecting FSU to finish 12th in the conference:
No. 1: Miami
Avg. conference wins: 7.5
6+ wins: 99.9%
11+ wins: 28.1%
No. 2: SMU
Avg. conference wins: 6.0
6+ wins: 95.7%
11+ wins: 3.4%
No. 3: Louisville
Avg. conference wins: 5.9
6+ wins: 92.9%
11+ wins: 3.7%
No. 4: Clemson
Avg. conference wins: 5.1
6+ wins: 94.2%
11+ wins: 2.9%
No. 5: Virginia Tech
Avg. conference wins: 4.9
6+ wins: 88.3%
11+ wins: 1.2%
No. 6: Virginia
Avg. conference wins: 4.8
6+ wins: 87.7%
11+ wins: 1.5%
No. 7: NC State
Avg. conference wins: 4.7
6+ wins: 81.2%
11+ wins: 0.7%
No. 8: Pittsburgh
Avg. conference wins: 4.5
6+ wins: 82.1%
11+ wins: 0.7%
No. 9: Duke
Avg. conference wins: 4.4
6+ wins: 73.2%
11+ wins: 0.4%
No. 10: California
Avg. conference wins: 4.1
6+ wins: 63.0%
11+ wins: 0.2%
No. 11: Georgia Tech
Avg. conference wins: 4.1
6+ wins: 64.7%
11+ wins: 0.1%
No. 12: Florida State
Avg. conference wins: 4.0
6+ wins: 76.4%
11+ wins: 0.4%
No. 13: Wake Forest
Avg. conference wins: 3.6
6+ wins: 66.5%
11+ wins: 0.2%
No. 14: North Carolina
Avg. conference wins: 3.1
6+ wins: 43.9%
11+ wins: 0.0%
No. 15: Syracuse
Avg. conference wins: 2.9
6+ wins: 24.7%
11+ wins: 0.0%
No. 16: Stanford
Avg. conference wins: 2.4
6+ wins: 13.4%
11+ wins: 0.0%
No. 17: Boston College
Avg. conference wins: 2.3
6+ wins: 15.0%
11+ wins: 0.0%
Connelly also pinpointed the October 31 Clemson vs. FSU matchup as one of the best games (the highest combined SP+ ratings for both teams and a projected scoring margin under eight points):
Clemson is evidently the ACC’s hinge team, either the Tigers will make a run back to the ACC title game, or they’ll help to determine who does instead. And if you told me right now that FSU was going to produce a top-20-caliber surge or finish under .500 for a third straight season, I’d believe you.
And also named linebacker Chris Jones as one of his favorite transfers:
The Southern Miss transfer made tackles on 17.5% of his snaps last season, one every 5.7 snaps, and took part in 15 run stops. I don’t know about the pass defense, but I’m betting FSU’s run defense ends up awfully strong with Jones and Blake Nichelson cleaning up messes.
His overall thoughts on the 2026 Seminoles:
2026 projection: 35th in SP+, 6.6 average wins (4.0 in the ACC)
Technically, anytime you improve by three wins and 42 spots in SP+, you have pulled off an excellent rebound season. And technically, going 5-7 just two years after you went 13-1 is never going to be anything but massively disappointing. It’s impossible to set expectations for Mike Norvell and FSU, but he evidently did just enough in 2025, following the cataclysmic 2-10 collapse of 2024, to keep his job for a seventh season. And as long as you’re still on the job, you can continue saving yourself.
After getting the customary Tommy Castellanos Experience in 2025, start out like a house afire (the Seminoles overachieved against offensive projections by 17.3 PPG in the first four games), then fade quickly (they underachieved by 8.2 PPG from there), the offense is now in quarterback Ashton Daniels’ hands. Daniels took over for Jackson Arnold at Auburn late last season and produced genuine improvement in a small sample. He’s a steadier but less explosive passer than Castellanos, and he’s an exciting and physical runner. He could pair well with backs Ousmane Kromah and Quintrevion Wisner (Texas) and vital receiver returnees Duce Robinson and Micahi Danzy. Kromah is a potential star, and in terms of yards per route, Robinson and Danzy are each among the top six returning WRs in the conference.
The big question for the offense comes up front, where last year’s top seven linemen are all gone, and Norvell had to bring in five transfers. Up to four of them could start, including All-MAC tackle Nate Pabst (Bowling Green) and another key Auburn transfer, Xavier Chaplin. Quite a few of the nation’s biggest offensive underachievers last year found themselves relying too heavily on transfers on the O-line, so this is a major roll of the dice. But if the line holds up, the offense could be excellent despite coordinator Gus Malzahn’s February retirement. (Receivers coach Tim Harris Jr. was promoted to the OC gig.)
Tony White’s first season as defensive coordinator produced decent improvement, albeit in bend-don’t-break form: FSU ranked only 54th in success rate allowed but improved to sixth in yards allowed per successful play. The linebacker duo of Blake Nichelson and transfer Chris Jones (Southern Miss) should assure proper sideline-to-sideline patrolling, and tackles Daniel Lyons and Jordan Sanders (Texas State) should provide push up front, so I’m betting the run defense is solid. But sophomore Mandrell Desir is the only proven pass rusher, and the secondary lost four of its top six, including all-conference safety Earl Little Jr. That means transfers will have to prop up the pass defense. Senior pass rusher Rylan Kennedy (Texas A&M) could be solid, but sophomores such as corner Nehemiah Chandler (South Alabama) and safeties Ma’Khi Jones (Duke) and CJ Richard Jr. (Illinois State) might have to come through in the back.
🍢 Consensus All-American, 1998 🍢 Unanimous All-American, 1999 🍢 Only 2x Groza Award Winner 🍢 1999 National Champion
Sebastian Janikowski is on the ballot for the 2027 College Football Hall of Fame#NoleFamilypic.twitter.com/UjqoYFscuH
, FSU Football (@FSUFootball) June 3, 2026
𝐁𝐢𝐠𝐠𝐞𝐫 𝐭𝐡𝐚𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐠𝐚𝐦𝐞
Our players were honored to spend time with patients at @WolfsonChildren last week 🙏 #NoleFamilypic.twitter.com/xJVcJkiuk7
, FSU Football (@FSUFootball) June 3, 2026
All Sports
Congratulations to our athletes who entered the FSU all-time top 10 list over the weekend at the NCAA East First Round!#NoleFamily | #OneTribepic.twitter.com/x2OKSCdYgl
, Florida State T&F/XC (@FSU_Track) June 3, 2026
Florida State Head Coach Luke Loucks got invited on De'Aaron Foxs Honeymoon to Italy pic.twitter.com/628ISTA3cU
, Pardon My Take (@PardonMyTake) June 3, 2026