Is Time on China’s Side? Beijing’s Taiwan Calculus and the Balance of Power

Article excerpt

When does military conflict become most likely? When a rising power believes time favors it, patience often wins. When a declining power fears its advantages slipping away, pressure to act mounts. China's calculus on Taiwan hinges on this logic: Beijing may believe its growing military and economic strength creates a shrinking window for the status quo, raising the stakes for any miscalculation. War on the Rocks convened three experts, Dean Cheng, Mira Rapp-Hooper, and Amanda Hsiao, to examine whether time genuinely favors Beijing and what the U.S. should do about the shifting balance of power in the Taiwan Strait.