NASCAR Sonoma Odds: Who Are the Favorites to Win the Toyota/Save Mart 350?

The NASCAR Cup Series heads to Sonoma Raceway this weekend for the Toyota/Save Mart 350, the second consecutive road-course race on the 2026 schedule and one of the most unique events of the season.

Unlike last week’s inaugural street race in San Diego, Sonoma is a permanent road course that rewards patience, precision, tire management, and experience. The 1.99-mile, 12-turn circuit has produced some of NASCAR’s most memorable road-course battles and often favors drivers with extensive backgrounds turning both left and right.

That reality is reflected in the odds entering Sunday’s race, where several of NASCAR’s top road-course performers sit near the top of the board.

Shane van Gisbergen Opens As The Clear Favorite

Sonoma arrives with a familiar storyline.

Whenever NASCAR heads to a road course, the conversation quickly turns to Shane van Gisbergen and whether anyone can beat him.

The Trackhouse Racing driver enters the weekend as the betting favorite at most sportsbooks, carrying odds around -175. Despite a disappointing finish in San Diego, van Gisbergen remains the benchmark whenever NASCAR turns left and right.

His reputation at Sonoma is well-earned. Van Gisbergen dominated last year’s Toyota/Save Mart 350, leading a track-record 97 laps and holding off Chase Briscoe to score his third Cup Series victory.

The New Zealander has consistently proven to be one of the sport’s premier road-course racers, making him the driver oddsmakers believe everyone else will have to beat on Sunday.

Tyler Reddick, Connor Zilisch, And Kyle Larson Lead The Chase Pack

Behind van Gisbergen, the odds tighten considerably.

Connor Zilisch enters the weekend around +700 after earning the biggest victory of his young NASCAR career in San Diego. The Trackhouse prospect has quickly established himself as one of the sport’s most naturally gifted road-course racers and arrives at Sonoma with significant momentum.

Tyler Reddick follows closely at roughly +850. The 23XI Racing driver remains one of NASCAR’s strongest road-course competitors and continues to lead the Cup Series standings entering the weekend.

Kyle Larson, listed around +900, also figures to be a major contender. Larson won the Toyota/Save Mart 350 in 2024 and has consistently been among the fastest drivers whenever the Cup Series visits Sonoma.

Ryan Blaney rounds out the next tier of favorites at approximately +1200.

Several Former Winners And Road-Course Specialists Could Surprise

While van Gisbergen sits atop the odds board, Sonoma has rarely been a one-driver show.

The entry list includes several drivers with proven success on road courses, including Christopher Bell, AJ Allmendinger, Chase Elliott, Chris Buescher, Chase Briscoe, Michael McDowell, and Ty Gibbs.

Elliott remains NASCAR’s winningest active road-course driver and is always a threat when the schedule shifts away from traditional ovals. Allmendinger has built his reputation as one of the garage’s most respected road-course specialists, while Bell and Buescher have become consistent contenders in the Next Gen era.

Sonoma’s history also shows that track position, strategy, and late-race restarts can dramatically change the outcome, making Sunday’s race difficult to predict despite the presence of a clear favorite.

Current Favorites To Win Sonoma

Based on widely available sportsbook odds entering race week, the leading contenders include:

Shane van Gisbergen (-175)

Connor Zilisch (+700)

Tyler Reddick (+850)

Kyle Larson (+900)

Ryan Blaney (+1200)

Several additional contenders, including Bell, Gibbs, Briscoe, Allmendinger, and Elliott, enter the weekend with odds that could make them intriguing dark-horse picks.

With only a handful of races remaining before the Chase field begins to take shape, Sunday’s Toyota/Save Mart 350 could have major implications for both the race win and the championship picture.