Record Low or Sleight of Hand? Inside San Francisco’s Disputed Homeless Count

Mayor Touts a 15-Year Low. Critics Say Methodology Overhaul, Uncounted Families, and Revolving Jail Door Tell a Different Story

The Office of the Mayor Daniel Lurie released the preliminary results from January’s Point in Time (PIT) count for San Francisco. While Mayor Daniel Lurie praised the city’s success in reducing homelessness, the PIT count results raise more questions than answers.

Mayor Lurie Says Homelessness is Down 4% Thanks to ‘Breaking the Cycle’ Plan

According to the PIT count results, the total number of people experiencing homelessness is down 4% since 2024. Roughly 950 fewer people are living on the streets of San Francisco, a decrease of 22% since the 2024 count. Mayor Lurie stated that unsheltered homelessness has reached a record low, the lowest since 2011.

Mayor Lurie credits this success to his Breaking the Cycle plan. The primary goal of this initiative is to recenter the city’s homeless response system around addiction recovery and behavioral health.

“When I took office, we set out to completely transform the city’s work around homelessness, drugs, and behavioral health, to get people off the street and on the path to stability,” said Mayor Lurie.

The Breaking the Cycle plan includes a 24/7 “police-friendly” crisis center and the RESET Center, which connects people to treatment and recovery.

While PIT count data is already considered an unreliable source for homelessness because it’s impossible to get an accurate representation of homelessness with a one-night snapshot, this year’s count appears even less reliable.

The PIT Count Was Conducted Differently This Year

Most notable is how San Francisco’s PIT count was conducted this year. In previous years, San Francisco conducted its count in the evening, typically between 8 pm and midnight, when most homeless people were seen sleeping outside or in shelters. This year, the city sent outreach workers on routes across the city between 5 am and 10 am. Lurie stated that the reason for this change is to increase visibility and canvasser safety; however, experts question this methodology.

Jennifer Friedenbach, Executive Director of the Coalition on Homelessness, questioned the accuracy of this year’s count. “It’s easier to tell when someone on the streets is homeless late at night, when fewer other people have a reason to be outside,” she said. “And by the morning, some homeless people might have been ‘trying to hide’ from city crews that regularly clear encampments.” Furthermore, the Lurie Administration did not pause sweeps prior to or during the count, so many could have been on the move or, in general, trying to be less visible.

Additionally, canvassers this year were required to speak with people to survey their housing status. Whereas in previous years, counts relied only on visual assessment. Canvassers were also tasked with collecting more in-depth information about their backgrounds, identities, and lifestyles. While this methodology offers a wider range of data to collect, canvassers reported that these changes created difficulty, chaos, and slowed the process.

Many interviewees did not want to be spoken to, especially after being woken up. Some were disappointed that canvassers were unable to offer services in exchange for surveying. Furthermore, many canvassers struggled to find their assigned groups, while others started their routes 90 minutes after the scheduled time. Others quit before the count was complete, leaving city officials to finish their work late in the morning.

Friedenbach said Mayor Lurie is not focusing enough on permanent housing and other programs that help homeless people transition into long-term, stable housing. She also points out the importance of programs that prevent homelessness in the first place. For instance, homeless prevention programs that interrupt evictions, or simply more investment in affordable housing, so people can actually stay in their homes.

“Unless San Francisco invests more in permanent housing and programs that help prevent homelessness, the number of people living outside will likely increase substantially in future years,” she said.

What’s Behind This Visible Drop in Homelessness

When cops tell Rose Snow to move, she complies.

“There’s certainly been a big crackdown,” Snow, 33, told The New York Times. “We’re being targeted by cops.” Homelessness is not suddenly resolved in San Francisco. Not when many homeless people have been redirected elsewhere.

The overall numbers also obscure who is being left behind. While unsheltered homelessness dropped 22%, family homelessness rose 15% in the same count period, a figure Mayor Lurie acknowledged but attributed to rising costs of living statewide. For families, the crisis isn’t receding. It’s growing.

Worse yet, too many are ending up in jail.

Experts point out other reasons for the reduction in the visibility of homelessness. For instance, while Friedenbach agrees that fewer visible people are living in tents, she points out that many are likely cycling through the jail system. Due to San Francisco’s increased enforcement of encampment sweeps and bans on public camping, many are ending up in jail.

“[The jail] population is up about 50 percent since 2021, having become a ‘revolving door’ for homeless people accused of misdemeanors such as illegal camping and possessing drug paraphernalia,” Friedenbach said. “This is definitely a tried and failed strategy.”

Mayor Lurie Continues to Shift Resources Toward Rehabilitation

With Lurie’s continued focus on drug use and rehabilitation, city resources and homelessness funds will continue to be shifted toward treatment programs. So far, this has resulted in the closure of a 280-bed shelter in Lower Nob Hill.

Now the question is whether San Francisco will continue on this path, especially given that the PIT results seem to support it.

Researchers and public health experts say a treatment-first approach is not designed to end homelessness. Without investing in long-term housing, treatment facilities are a revolving door back into homelessness. Without a long-term solution, homeless people will end up back on the streets.

Advocates must continue to pressure Mayor Lurie to abandon the criminalization of homelessness for real solutions, like affordable housing, homelessness, and eviction prevention.