Karl Rove Reveals Why Democrats’ Polling Lead Might Not Be Enough for Blue Wave

Fox News’ Karl Rove discussed why Democrats’ current polling lead may not produce the blue wave they’re hoping to ride into power in this November’s midterm elections during a Thursday morning segment with anchor Bill Hemmer.

Hemmer prompted Rove to discuss the matter with the following background information and query:

Karl, you see what I’ve got back here? Current balance of power in the House, 218 to 212. Simple majority right now is 216. On the Senate, razor-tight here. Majority 51, Republicans lead at 53-47. The Marquette survey went out, Karl, and they found this, right? Among those certain to vote, generic ballot, This is super even here, right. I mean, this is well within the margin of error, 49-48%.

Also, among those who are certain to vote, look what we saw back in January, Democrats had a seven-point lead. in April they took it to ten, now it’s down to one. And if you advance it one more time, this, Karl, look at this, this is a dead even race about the likelihood of voting, and that was not the case in April. You know, Democrats at 67, Republicans at 56, 11-point spread there. What is changing out there as you see it?

“Well, look, I’m not certain how much change there really is. You’ve got into the nitty gritty of these measures, how likely are you to vote, are you certain to vote etc., etc. But if you look at just the top line numbers among all the respondents in the survey, in May it was 56 D, 45 R, the Ds had a one-point advantage, in April it was 48-44, a four-point advantage. So the Democrats in the Marquette survey have dropped two, and the Republicans have added one, which is inside the margin of error,” replied Rove.

“Essentially, if you look at this one poll, what it suggests is that there hasn’t been much change, but if there is any change, it’s to the advantage of the Republicans. But we’re losing the big picture. We need to step back. We’re a highly polarized country, we have just gone through a mid-decade redistricting that has mildly advantaged the Republicans, and the question is how big a gap do the Democrats need in order to pull off a significant sweep in the House of Representatives?” argued the longtime GOP campaign operative, adding, “And having a Democrat advantage of one ain’t much. A Democrat advantage of four is significantly better. But I’m thinking that they need to have at least five or six minimum lead in the advantage on the ballot if they’re going to take the House with a significant margin.”

“The reason is is that so many seats, so many more Democrat seats are urban, and hence highly Democrat, and the Republican seats, even when they’re in highly conservative rural America, are not as conservative, not as Republican as their urban counterparts are Democrat. So the Democrats right today have an advantage, but it’s likely to reduce-, produce a relatively small margin in the House elections,” he continued. “And remember, this is a contest between two unfavorables. The president’s unfavorability is at 40%. The Democratic Party’s unfavorability is below 37. So who’s more-, who’s less popular and how’s that going to affect the outcome?”

Watch above via Fox News.

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