Nate Silver Makes His Prediction on How Likely It Is Dems Will Win the House
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Nate Silver said the predictions markets are underestimating the Democrats in the 2026 midterms, especially when it comes to winning back control of the House The post Nate Silver Makes His Prediction on How Likely It Is Dems Will Win the House first appeared on Mediaite.
Nate Silver said the predictions markets are underestimating the Democrats in the 2026 midterms, especially when it comes to winning back control of the House of Representatives.
The famous data-focused journalist shared his election predictions during an interview on the All-In Podcast on Monday.
Silver said prediction markets have Democrats at 80-85% odds to win back the House, and 40-45% to take control of the Senate;. He said those are “pretty reasonable,” but that it was “a little bit low” on what he projects for the House. Silver said he gives the Dems an 85-90% shot at retaking the House.
“The House is the one where kind of everything points in the same direction. Democrats are facing a very unpopular president and an economy that voters have a lot of anxiety about,” Silver said.
He pointed to several other factors going in the left’s favor, including Trump starting the Iran war, the history of the president’s party not doing well in midterms, and “incumbent backlash” both in the U.S. and abroad recently.
“Look, the redistricting helps the GOP in the end, but you’re fighting against a lot of gravity,” he added.
Silver was referring to the GOP picking up an estimated 10-16 seats via redistricting wins. The GOP received another boost on that front on Monday, when Colorado’s Supreme Court shot down three Dem-backed ballot measures that would have netted Democrats several districts.
In other election-related news, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled against President Donald Trump when it came to mail-in ballots on Monday. The court ruled that states can continue to count votes after Election Day, as long as they are postmarked by then.
Trump has argued for mandatory ID to vote and for curtailing mail-in voting.
Silver said the Senate battle will be much closer. He said the Democrats are taking an “unnecessary risk” pushing scandal-plagued Graham Platner in Maine’s Senate race, a state he said should be an easy Dem win in most years.
Jason Cohen contributed to this report.
Watch above.
The post Nate Silver Makes His Prediction on How Likely It Is Dems Will Win the House first appeared on Mediaite.